The race to succeed me as mayor has been pretty quiet so far. Sure, some lawn signs have come up; but, signs don't vote. I have no sense that either candidate is working the doors--and you need to work doors in order to win local elections. Back in 2006 I beat a heavily favored candidate by doing two things: knocking on 10,000 doors and a nice compare/contrast mailer to voters the week before the election. It's an easy formula that either candidate could duplicate.
This year's mayoral race is of particular importance as it could sway the future direction of the city council. We have a five member city council which is now balanced at 3 conservatives and two liberals. This year the mayor's seat and two of the four council seats are up for grabs; one of the council seats is occupied by Jon Duckstad, who is running for mayor.
It is likely that liberals will capture the two council seats, including the seat currently held by Jon. One would think that would mean a shift in the council irrespective of the mayor's race; but, that's not so because one of the incumbent council members (whose seat is not up this year) is running for state office. If he wins, Jon wins, and the two liberals win council seats then the council will be split 2-2.
The law provides that the council gets to appoint any vacancies. The law also provides that if the council vote results in a tie that the mayor alone gets to fill the seat.
That's why the mayor's race is so important. It could determine the continuation of a conservative council.
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