I honestly have no idea.
I have no particular reason for saying so, but I have to believe the race is pretty tight. Neither candidate, it seems to me, has delivered knock-out punch. I think they've both done all the predictable things--debates, yard signs, door knocking, etc., but all of those are primarily good for establishing your base of name recognition. Voters don't really pay much attention to local races until the last ten days or so before the election. Life is simply too busy.
This is the time to distinguish yourself from the competition. Make a final argument, preferably in a manner that doesn't give your opponent a chance at rebuttal. I've said it before and I'll say it again--for a local race nothing is more effective than a compare/contrast mail piece the week before the election.
One of our current council members tried this two years ago, labelling himself the "low tax guy." It was a nice piece but he mailed it too early; the target of the add had enough time to do a last minute mailer of his own.
If I were in the mayor's race I would mail a mailer tomorrow--Wednesday. Mail it bulk and most residents will receive it Friday or Saturday--perfect.
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